Warm weather expected to continue
by Kevin Weedmark
The unusually warm winter weather that has marked this winter in Saskatchewan and Manitoba is forecast to continue for at least the next couple of weeks, and Environment Canada is now predicting normal to above normal temperatures for the next four months.
Earlier in the fall, Environment Canada had predicted a colder than normal winter because of La Nina conditions—cooler than normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
In fact, December was one of the warmest, driest Decembers on record for Saskatchewan.
2011 was the second warmest December on record for Saskatchewan—across the province average temperatures were eight degrees above normal.
The warmer winter comes after two colder than normal winters in 2009 and 2010. The average temperatures for December of 2011 were 14 degrees above December of 2010.
Environment Canada Meteorologist David Phillips said in an interview Wednesday that the agency missed the mark with its long-range forecast for this weather.
“We said it was going to be colder than normal—our models were showing that,” Phillips said.
“At least we weren’t as far off as the Americans. American meterologists were calling for it to be the coldest winter in 20 years.
“I don’t think anyone predicted what we have actually seen. No one would have predicted the balminess we have seen this winter.
“It’s one thing to get a bonspiel thaw in January, but to have such consistently warm temperatures is very unusual.
“Right now it’s three degrees in Moosomin and it should be minus 10. The low tonight is going to be minus one instead of minus 21. And that pattern has stayed consistent through November and December.
“Monday should be four degrees—that’s fourteen degrees above normal.
Phillips says there is a simple explanation for the warm weather.
The winds are coming from the south —this is American air impacting Moosomin right now,” Phillips says.
The Environment Canada meteorologist says it feels significantly warmer in areas of southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba where there is no snow on the ground. “When you’ve got snow on the ground, and you’ve got warm air coming in, the first dibs on the energy in that warm air is that snow on the ground,” he says. “The warm air makes a difference once there’s no snow.”
Phillips says December of 2011 was the second warmest on record for the Moosomin-Broadview area, second only to 1997.
“The average high this December was -2.3 average, the average low was -11.6, and the mean temperature was -6.9. Back in 1997, the mean temperature (the average of all the daily highs and lows) was -4 and the average high was 0, so that was the record year. A normal high for the Moosomin area would be -10 and a normal high would be -19 normal low The mean temperature. 1997 was -4. Second warmest on record max temperature was 0.”
Some people remember 1997 as the year people in the Moosomin area were golfing on Boxing Day.
Phillips said the warm weather has carried on into December and the rest of the winter could remain relatively mild.
“For the next four months together we’re showing normal to a little above normal for the southern Prairies,” he said. As long as the airflow is from the south, that should continue.
“It’s been cold in the high Arctic but that weather is not coming down here. Moosomin is getting mild weather because the wind is from the south. If it comes from the north, it’s going to be frigging cold.
“What really usually dominates is the northern flow, but sometimes the strong Pacific flow keeps the Arctic air from moving south.”
He said many people associate the La Nina system with colder winters, but that is not always the case. “We’ve had 17 La Ninas in the last 50 years, and some of them were warmer than normal, he said.
“There are no guarantee with weather in Canada.
“We know our models are not perfect—it’s still a matter of, in Canada, if you don’t like the weather out your front door look out your back door.”
